US COVID-19-Related Travel Considerations and Immigration
After a pandemic-led 2020, confidence in this year’s recovery has soared with the growth outlook upgraded in the Feb. 8–11 poll of nearly 120 economists, driven by the proposed $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus package
The U.S. economy is expected to reach pre-COVID-19 levels within a year as President Joe Biden’s planned fiscal package helps boost economic activity, but it’s likely to take over a year for unemployment to fall to early 2020 levels, a Reuters poll showed.
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After a pandemic-led 2020, confidence in this year’s recovery has soared with the growth outlook upgraded in the Feb. 8–11 poll of nearly 120 economists, driven by the proposed $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus package.
Over 90%, or 51 of 56 economists in response to an additional question said the U.S. economy would reach pre-COVID-19 levels within a year, including 23 respondents expecting it within six months.
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“Optimism towards the economic recovery has raised expectations for future growth and inflation. The success of the vaccine deployment and its efficacy will be huge in determining whether the economic forecasts become reality,” said Beata Caranci, chief economist at TD Bank Group.
“Over the last few months, the changes to the forecast have favored a more rapid economic recovery. For the sake of the economy, we hope it continues to surpass our expectations.”
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The U.S. economy, which recovered at an annualized pace of 33.4% in the third quarter from a record slump of 31.4% in the second quarter, grew 4.0% in the fourth quarter, the poll found.
While the economy was forecast to slow and grow 2.8% this quarter, it was better than 2.3% predicted in January.
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The economy was then expected to accelerate and grow 6.0%, 6.3% and 4.6% in the next three quarters, an upgrade from 4.3%, 5.1% and 4.0% predicted for those periods last month.
For the full year, growth was forecast to average 4.7% in 2021 and 3.5% next year, an upgrade from 4.0% and 3.3% expected previously.
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“While there are obvious risks that virus mutations deliver setbacks or problems arise with the vaccination program, we think the positives outweigh the negative risks,” said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING.
“Consequently 5% growth looks achievable this year and this is before we consider the potential boost from President Biden’s Build Back Better infrastructure and energy plan.”
Still, all but one of 54 economists with a view said it would take more than a year for the U.S. unemployment rate to reach pre-COVID-19 levels. That includes 33 economists who expected it to take more than two years.
“The recovery in jobs may take a little more time due to uncertainty over potential structural changes in the economy — home working meaning less people in major cities and perhaps less need for bars, restaurants, retail workers as a result,” said ING’s Knightley.
“Conversely, maybe more workers are needed outside of these areas. Getting a good understanding will take time.”
Apart from the downside economic risks from the virus, relations with trading partners was expected to play a major role, with China particularly in focus.
The U.S. president and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, held their first telephone call as leaders this week, with Biden saying a free and open Indo-Pacific was a priority and Xi warning confrontation would be a “disaster” for both nations.
When asked what would happen to U.S.-China trade relations this year, nearly 90% or 46 of 52 economists said they would stay the same. Only six respondents said they would improve; none expected them to worsen.
“The U.S. and China will remain locked in global trade and technology competition over the near term despite the change in administration,” said Scott Anderson, chief economist at Bank of the West.
WASHINGTON: US President Joe Biden announced plans to vaccinate most Americans by the end of July with the help of 200 million newly acquired doses, as the country’s inoculation campaign kicked off a new phase in drugstores and supermarket pharmacies, some of which will offer shots as of Friday (Feb 12).
Even as the Biden administration inked deals to acquire “100 million more Moderna and 100 million more Pfizer vaccines” and COVID-19 cases fall in Europe, the World Health Organization warned against rash reopenings, in a sobering reminder of the long global battle ahead in taming the pandemic.
“The decline in cases conceals increasing numbers of outbreaks and community spread involving variants of concern,” said WHO Europe director Hans Kluge.
“At this point, the overwhelming majority of European countries remain vulnerable,” he added, pointing out the “thin line between the hope of a vaccine and a false sense of security.”
More than a million cases are still registered every week across the 53 member states in the UN agency’s European region, which includes several Central Asian countries.
With the latest vaccine purchases, the United States — the world’s hardest-hit country with more than 470,000 deaths — is on track “to have enough supply for 300 million Americans by the end of July”, Biden said, meaning enough inoculations for all eligible people.
He made the announcement Thursday after touring the National Institutes of Health near Washington, with a million previously acquired vaccine doses already headed to around 6,500 drugstores and supermarket pharmacies.
The US immunization campaign got off to a shaky start in December, and even as recently as Thursday, Los Angeles moved to temporarily close five major inoculation centers including its giant Dodger Stadium site, due to vaccine shortage.
Mass COVID-19 vaccination programs are being ramped up in many countries in the race against more contagious variants, and governments are urging populations to continue to cope with closures as the inoculation campaigns move forward.
Worldwide deaths now stand at nearly 2.4 million, with the Middle East surpassing 100,000 fatalities on Thursday.
“WORRYING SITUATION”
Germany, meanwhile, said it will ban travel from Czech border regions, as well as Austria’s Tyrol due to concern over new variants.
Europe’s biggest economy had already in late January banned most travelers from countries classed as mutation areas or places hardest-hit by more contagious variants.
It has halved its daily infection rate after more than two months of painful curbs, but fears are growing that the positive trend could be compromised by travelers from border regions reporting sky-high case rates.
France’s health minister Olivier Veran warned of a “worrying situation” in Moselle, across the border from Germany, after a high number of South African and Brazilian variants were detected, possibly leading to new restrictions.
The International Ski Federation (FIS) announced that all remaining World Cups in Norway were canceled due to new COVID-19 government curbs.
“THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE DYING”
Vaccine distribution has varied widely worldwide, though overall more than 155.7 million people in at least 91 countries have been inoculated so far, according to an AFP tally.
Rollouts are hampered by limited supplies, and AstraZeneca’s shot has been in the spotlight after a number of European countries refused to authorize it for those over 65 — the demographic most vulnerable to COVID-19.
There have also been questions over its effectiveness against the virus strain that emerged in South Africa.
Nevertheless, the WHO backed AstraZeneca’s coronavirus shot on Wednesday — including for over-65s and in places where new virus variants are circulating.
The AstraZeneca shot forms the bulk of doses being rolled out around the world — especially in poorer countries — under the COVAX program.
WHO expert Alejandro Cravioti said the organization was awaiting more specific data on the vaccine’s efficacy in over-65s, but it “would not be appropriate” to wait with “thousands of people dying”.
On Thursday, AstraZeneca said its 2020 earnings had doubled, even without taking into account sales of its vaccine, which was only approved for use at the end of last year.
The WHO’s Kluge also reiterated a call for the distribution of vaccines to include poorer countries, citing it as a “moral imperative” but also a means of mitigating risks.
WHO said deaths from COVID-19 in Africa surged by 40 percent over the last month, as the continent’s toll approaches 100,000.
SYMBOL OF HOPE
The coronavirus has infected more than 107 million people since the outbreak emerged in China in December 2019, according to an AFP tally.
Beyond vaccines, there was also positive news on treatments, with a study showing the arthritis drug tocilizumab reduces the risk of critically ill patients dying of COVID-19.
Europe’s oldest person, French nun Sister Andre, meanwhile became a symbol of hope when she celebrated her 117th birthday on Thursday after surviving COVID-19 and living through two world wars.
